FIRE Retirement Calculator

What FIRE actually means

FIRE — Financial Independence, Retire Early — is the goal of accumulating enough invested assets that the income from those assets covers your living expenses indefinitely. The "retire" part is optional; many people who hit FI keep working on their terms. The point is optionality.

The math: 25× and the 4% rule

The 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) comes from the Trinity Study and Bengen's research, which showed that withdrawing 4% of an initial portfolio (adjusted for inflation each year) had a ~95% chance of surviving 30 years across historical US data. Invert that — you need 100/4 = 25× your annual expenses to be financially independent.

Why savings rate dominates time-to-FI

Mr. Money Mustache made this point famous: time to FI is almost entirely a function of savings rate, not income. Two reasons: a higher savings rate means more capital invested, AND it means lower required expenses (your FIRE number itself shrinks). The double effect is huge.

The FIRE flavors

• Lean FIRE — <$40k/year expenses, ~$1M target.
• Regular FIRE — $40-80k/year, $1-2M target.
• Fat FIRE — $100k+/year, $2.5M+ target.
• Coast FIRE — saved enough early that compound growth alone will fund traditional retirement.
• Barista FIRE — partial FI; a part-time job covers expenses while the portfolio grows.

Is 4% still safe in 2026?

Recent research (Big ERN's SWR Series, Morningstar's State of Retirement Income) suggests 3.3-3.5% is materially safer for very long (50+ year) early retirements, particularly in high-CAPE environments. The original 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements starting from average historical valuations. Build in a buffer.

Sequence-of-returns risk: the silent FIRE killer

A bad market in the first 5 years of retirement is far more damaging than the same market 15 years in. Selling depleted assets locks in losses. Defenses: hold 2-3 years of cash buffer, plan flexible "guardrails" spending (reduce withdrawals in down years), or use a bond tent to glide back into equities post-retirement.

Beyond money: the part everyone underestimates

Hitting your FIRE number is the easy part. Building a life that feels meaningful without the structure of work is harder. Spend time before FI figuring out what you'll actually DO with the freedom — relationships, projects, learning, service. Money buys options, not purpose.